Politicians of all parties appear to listen to pressure groups, lobbyists,focus groups,in short those with an agenda. The man on the street is largely overlooked. As are a majority of the general public. The aim of this blog is to try and redress the balance, with thoughts from a voice in the wilderness on various topics of general interest.
Saturday, 10 December 2011
The Arab Awakening
In order to have an understanding of the current happenings in the Arab world it is necessary to explore the recent history of the region, from both the perspective of the Arab and the outside world, to arrive at a realistic conclusion. Without wishing to fuel a conspiracy theory there are many coincidences to consider in order to reach a fair appraisal. The Arab Awakening is a belated but direct result of the fall of the Ottoman Empire, which itself was a result of the treaty obligations of the European nations which had culminated in the Great War altercation. The power vacuum following the Great War allowed the Arab demands for independence and secession from Turkey to flourish. Demands which had emerged during the 19th century. The Ottoman Empire had endured for nearly half a millennium and, from the Turkish perspective was a somewhat successful empire, given its longevity and comparison with other world empires. Administered at a distance from Turkey, the empire relied on the support of the indigenous tribes and warlords to maintain its control. Turkey did not impose an alien culture but supported and sponsored Islam, with political control delegated to the local leadership to administer their immediate locality in their own manner, while upholding the religious law of Islam. The overall culture of the Ottoman Empire was of religious tolerance of Judaism, Christianity, and Islam; there being little point in creating division in a geographically extended empire. In some ways the empire was a collection of autonomous vassal states, nominally subordinate to Turkey, each independent of its neighbour, and reliant on the Ottoman Empire for security and support. The Arabian Peninsula covered a largely barren area and, as a result of the inhospitable nature of the region, the populations were centred in habitable areas; the vast hinterland the preserve of nomadic tribes. Given the isolation and lack of communications of that time the largely autonomous communities of the region followed a tribal system culture reminiscent of the cultures that had endured since biblical times. The North African end of the region was effectively influenced and controlled by the Mediterranean states of Spain, France and Italy with Great Britain and France having a dual role in Egypt.
The Treaty of Versailles 1919 and the Treaty of Lausanne 1922 signalled the break up of the Ottoman Empire leading to the creation of new nations and resulted in those factions which had favoured the allied cause in the Great War, (while using the divisions in Europe to further their own agenda of self-determination), ultimately to be installed in power by the victorious Allies. The major victorious European powers of the Great War, Great Britain and France were charged by the League of Nations to bring areas of Asia Minor to nationhood following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. The kingdoms/nations of Iraq and Jordan were created under the tutelage of Great Britain and Lebanon and Syria by France. The cartographers delineated the geographic boundaries of the nations created by Great Britain and France with the formal recognition of the international community represented by the League of Nations. Overlaying the geographic make up of the region the demography of its tribal peoples however also included a religious dimension, encompassing Judaism, Christianity, and Islam, which was not sufficiently recognized and consequently peoples were divided and placed arbitrarily, at the whim of the pen of the cartographers, within nations with which they had little in common. Israel announced its own statehood and independence. Thus was set in place the basis for Arab nationalism and the Arab Awakening.
As the 20th century unfolded the autocratic integrity and authority of the installed hereditary leaders and puppet governments began to wane, as the worldwide capitalist and socialist systems strove for influence and supremacy; regimes were changed on grounds of external political idealism, often by military takeover with foreign support. The non-aligned nations were wooed with gifts of aid and military packages to align themselves with their benefactors, the major world powers. The new regimes often represented factions previously disadvantaged by the defeated outgoing regime and in practice then proceeded themselves to disadvantage their previous oppressors along tribal and/or religious sectarian lines. Influenced by their tribal culture many of the newly installed leaders proceeded to create their dynastic family, as was the tribal custom, Western democracy not being of paramount importance. An impetus was given to the Arab Awakening along nationalistic lines by the action of Iran 1950-1951 and which was to become a precursor of diplomatic posturing and action to come. Prime Minister Mossadeg of Iran, having been unable to renegotiate payments by the operating company Anglo-Iranian Oil, to fund his reforming social programme, proceeded to nationalise its oilfields. (The diplomatic response was the removal from power of Mossadeg by the alleged concerted action of the American CIA and the British M15 in “Operation Ajax”). Further Arab nationalistic action followed the fall of King Farouk of Egypt, when the Suez Canal was nationalised in 1956 and the actions of the cartel of the Oil Producing nations during the 1970`s further empowered the erstwhile submissive nations. With the hardening of opposing positions the stage was set for the further awakening from slumber for the Arab World.
The catalyst for change for the Arab nations came with the demise of the Communist system and the lessening of their allegiance and reliance on the Super Powers of the Eastern and West bloc, which had increasingly become odd bedfellows for the non-aligned nations. Control and influence by the super powers had become too rigid and alternative allies, and possibly more advantageous alliances, were emerging to be cultivated by the Arab world. It is apparent that to energize and motivate public support for policy changes the diplomatic model appears to be to arouse nationalistic fervour, demonise the opponent with posturing and rhetoric and play on the patriotism of the public. In application such unsophisticated policy is somewhat archaic at the end of the 20th/beginning of the 21st century. Western diplomacy by various Western alliances, with the intention to install administrations more amenable to the Western world, culminating in regime changes in the Arab world, is a feature of the last half century. The most recent fear of WMDs and the “War on Terror” have energized the Wes,t while the rhetoric of the Arab world in retaliation abhorring and denouncing the westernisation of Arab culture by the increasingly secular Western world, is a clarion call for Arab fundamentalists and the intransigence of peoples deeming their culture to be under threat.
The West, having fuelled nationalism in the Arab World by being perceived as being a threat to Arab culture, is unlikely to be able to impose a Western style democracy and culture on the region however beneficial it is considered to be for the people. The conclusion that can be drawn is that the short term policy of the West, implemented at great cost is unlikely to be sustained indefinitely. Short term policies to gain political allies, commercial advantage, or natural resources can be overturned in an instant as the alternating factions controlling the Arab nations fall into disfavour and are superseded. The Arab nations, by having a voice such as Al Jazeera and Media championing Arab culture, any developments perceived of benefit to Arab culture will be subtle and implemented by the better educated generations to come as popular acceptability and political expediency allows. Student rebellion to right the follies of their forebears.
Related subject: Click on posts in Previous Posts menu.
Democracy: a new religion?
Military intimidation as political policy.